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  See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: Understanding Globalization and its Future: An Analysis  Article  · January 2014 CITATIONS 3 READS 38,910 3 authors:Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Developing Quality Assurance framework for distance higher education institutes   View projectUsman Riaz MirVirtual University of Pakistan 9   PUBLICATIONS   16   CITATIONS   SEE PROFILE Dr. Syeda Mahnaz HassanUniversity of the Punjab 32   PUBLICATIONS   52   CITATIONS   SEE PROFILE Mubashar Majeed QadriVirtual University of Pakistan 19   PUBLICATIONS   25   CITATIONS   SEE PROFILE All content following this page was uploaded by Mubashar Majeed Qadri on 08 April 2015. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.   Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS) Vol. 34, No. 2 (2014), pp. 607-624 Understanding Globalization and its Future: An Analysis Usman Riaz Mir Lecturer, Virtual University of Pakistan Email: Syeda Mahnaz Hassan, PhD Assistant Professor, Department of Social Work, University of the Punjab, Lahore Email: Mubashir Majeed Qadri Lecturer, Virtual University of Pakistan   Abstract Globalization is a complex and dynamic phenomenon. What make this  phenomenon more complex are the contradictory justifications on the srcin of globalization, conflicting ways of defining the phenomenon and differing viewpoints on globalization dimensions. This paper tries to provide definitions of globalization which support its historical development perspective. History has provided some details about  ground breaking events in different eras of globalization. Various dimensions of globalization are also available in this study. Brief description of each dimension is given for understanding globalization  from different aspects. Last and most important part of this paper is comprised of current events, statistics, reports and trend analysis which help in predicting globalization’s future. Future is forecasted based on available facts and figures. Conclusively, the result of all discussion on future of globalization is that it will survive and  gradually grow with respect to all aspects. Stage is set for enhanced  globalization. Although it has pros and cons, it is on our part to  support, facilitate and encourage positive impacts of globalization, while searching ways to minimize or discourage its drawbacks. Keywords:  Globalization, dynamic phenomenon, future. I. Introduction Globalization is a multifaceted phenomenon which encompasses economic, social,  political, technological and cultural dimensions. Whether globalization is newly constituted phenomenon? Answer of this question depends upon how far researcher is ready to extend the chain of causation which resulted in those social and technological arrangement s that many scholars have associated with globalization. The basis of today’s technological advancements like supersonic jet planes and computer are based on earlier inventions like steam engine, cotton ginning, typewriter, telephone and electrical appliances.. These inventions are further based on some previous inventions like the invention of wheel, domestication of wild animals & plants and finally migration of African ancestors at the dawn of human invention.  608  Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 34, No. 2  Some scholars have deliberately limited the scope of globalization to the last four decades in order to understand the contemporary features of globalization. Others are trying to find the linkages of globalization in the ground breaking developments of 19 th  century. Even some others are looking back into the beginning of industrialism and capitalism for understanding globalization. Finally, few scholars reject the concept of confining globalization in few decades, rather according to them globalization is a  process which has been unfolding for millennia (Steger, 2003). Above mentioned history of globalization indicates that it is an ongoing process. Intensity of globalization changes in the times of boom and recession. Many scholars are talking about the future of globalization (Robb, 2007; Hufbauer & Suominen, 2010; Muller, 2010). Some are worried about the impact of terrorism on globalization process. Some others have keen interest in the study of recent financial crisis. Muller (2010) has suggested a new phase of globalization with an alarming end of globalization. He also suggested some remedies about securing the process of globalization from going towards the worst situation. The purpose of this paper is to give a brief history of globalization along with its dimensions and phases. Finally, the paper tries to predict the future of globalization in the lights of recent political, social, economic and cultural trends. II. History of globalization It seems a moot question, when someone asks about the history of globalization. By looking at the contemporary feel regarding effects of globalization, it is a common  practice in media and even in scholars to look at globalization as a recent trend emerged  before few decades (Pieterse, 2012). The usual timeline of globalization emphasized by the scholars and researchers is post-second world war and on the minimum post-cold war. Effective database on globalization in the fields of social sciences, humanities, political science, media, cultural studies, communication, film studies and international relations can be found out from 1970s or 1980s onward (Pieterse, 2012) and this era has been considered as most relevant as well as have accelerated global flows and effects. But a question arises that does it make sense that a momentous concept like globalization emerged in only few decades? Globalization, as a complex connectivity, may situate before few decades but globalization process comprised of social, political, economic and cultural flows instigates us to go further back in times (Tomlinson, 1999). According to Pieterse (2012), many features of globalization can be found in the past and embedded in the evolutionary times. In this sense, globalization becomes part of big history which situates planetary evolutionary processes within cosmic evolution (Spier, 2010). The study of “historical globalization” indicates that the world had never been a  place for unconnected/discrete communities rather there were strong evidences of cross cultural exchanges and interactions from the earliest times of human existence in the  planet (Bentley, 2004). Looking at globalization as current trend probably is a semantic issue. Many historians have found out the basis of deep and wide infrastructure of globalization in the past era without using the term globalization (Pieterse, 2012). Historians have taken different threshold levels for defining the emergence of globalization. The emergence of world economy is one of the thresholds for  Usman Riaz Mir, Syeda Mahnaz Hassan, Mubashir Majeed Qadri   609   globalization. Frank (1998) in his research in Asia and Gunn (2003) in his research on Southeast Asia considers 1200s as a most relevant time for economic emergence. But Hobson (2004) has found out evidences of world economy as far back as 3500 BC. According to Hobson (2004), although economic globalization starts emerging from 3500 BC but a huge expansion of global connections and trade occurred during post 600- period which is termed as oriental globalization encouraged by the revival of camel transport. Era of commercial revolution is also a threshold for defining globalization which unfolded from 1000 BC. A web of commercial ties have created a link between big  portion of the world in which India, South China and Mediterranean, and with the help of Europe, East & West Africa, Central Asia, Indonesia and North & Western Pacific were active points. The core element of newly established commerce system was widely recognized money system, development of new technology of accounting, merchandizing and shipping, establishment of commercial routes and development of social institutions (Ehret, 1998; Manning, 2005). If trade linkages between different distant regions are taken as the criterion of globalization emergence, then it may leads further back to Bronze Age. Besides cotton and silk from China, early trade includes turquoise, agate, beads and lapis. The Silk Road from Xian to Mediterranean dates back to 800 BC and evidence of Jade road from central Asia to China can be found in 3000 BCE (Mair, 2006). It also matches with the early commerce technologies like charging interest on loans, whose evidence can be found in Sumer dated back to 3000 BC (Goetzmann & Rouwenhorst 2005). Jennings (2011), who is an Archeologist, takes the formation of cities as a threshold for globalization. There was rapid social changes and urbanization in Mesopotamian world in Uruk period (4200-3100 BCE). Uruk-Warka was a major urban center which was three times in size of Athens (Jennings, 2011). Steger (2003) has summed up the debate on history of globalization and provided a short chronology, based on five distinct historical periods. These periods are segregated  by significant changes in the social, cultural, political, technological and economical factors. Following are distinct historical periods suggested by Steger (2003) with some important characteristics. Pre-historic period (10000 BC  –   3500 BC) In the start of this human history, interaction among thousands of hunter all over the world was limited to geographical limitations and was coincidental. But the extent of social interaction changed dramatically when food cultivation was focused. Although, the  process of globalization started but its magnitude was limited. Evidence showed centrally administered warfare, agriculture, bureaucracy and religion as key agents of social interaction which ultimately resulted in growing societies in different regions of the world. Pre-modern period (3500 BC  –   1500 C) There was a dramatic change in globalization in this period because of invention of wheel (3000 BC) in South Asia and writing in central China, Egypt and Mesopotamia.
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